Friday, August 31, 2012

Meetup Message Board Update

*Please do not reply to this message*
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You asked that we send you a summary of Meetup message board activity. The following is a list of discussions with new messages posted since August 30, 2012 3:21 AM.
------------------------------------------------------------

============================================================
PENINSULA PATRIOTS
Forum: Peninsula Patriots Discussion Forum
============================================================

State Department Memorandum 200 – Population Control and Food as a Weapon
http://www.meetup.com/Peninsula-Patriots/boards/view/viewthread?thread=26404152
Latest message by Sharon S. on August 30, 2012 at 12:37 PM

One of Americas most respected Lt. Generals gives us all a WARNING
http://www.meetup.com/Peninsula-Patriots/boards/view/viewthread?thread=26292862
Latest message by Mark Matthews on August 30, 2012 at 10:26 PM



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Thursday, August 30, 2012

[Peninsula-Patriots] A question

I have a question. Has anyone heard any speaker at the convention mention the Tea Party by name. They use the Tea Party yet in their political correctness they dismiss us. I don't know about you but I am tired of it. I have been a lifetime Republican but I will not stand for this much longer. Political correctness is destroying our country and someone needs to be called out.

Please take a look at this:
 
 Waving USA FLag
DeWitt Edwards 
You have heard it said that silence is golden. But it is not golden when it comes to defending freedom. We must speak out or forever remain silent.




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Re: [Peninsula-Patriots] think before you buy!

Check the US Army web site, you will see a job listed as Internment/Resettlement specialist. Make of it what you will, it can be interpreted to mean almost anything.
 
In a message dated 8/28/2012 12:15:35 P.M. Eastern Daylight Time, wmwships08@gmail.com writes:
As long as we are on insurance, don't forget that Progressive Insurance (you know, the the TV ads featuring the ditz, dressed all in white) lives up to its name with large contribution to liberal candidates and causes.

Ted

On Tue, Aug 28, 2012 at 11:47 AM, Larry Heatwole <lches335@verizon.net> wrote:

Also, Farmers Insurance donates to the Republican Party.  Plus,.their rates are cheaper than just about everybody.  I've had great service with them.  I will never change.
LCH
----- Original Message -----
Sent: Monday, August 27, 2012 9:41 PM
Subject: Re: [Peninsula-Patriots] think before you buy!


I would love to pass this on but need to see where this information originated. Need to check it out. Can't seem to find anything on "Center for Responsive Politics," "Shopping."

Nancy



On Aug 27, 2012, at 11:26 AM, DeWitt Edwards wrote:

From Dorothy comes this:


SHOP POLITICALLY

AMERICANS CAN NOW DETERMINE WHERE TO SHOP AND SPEND THEIR MONEY

Election Cycle political donations, as reported by the Center for Responsive Politics.
Shopping

Price Club/Costco donated $225K, 99% went to Democrats

Rite Aid donated $517K, 60% went to Democrats

Magla Products ( Stanley tools, Mr. Clean) donated $22K, 100% went to Democrats

Warnaco (undergarments) donated $55K, 73% went to Democrats

Martha Stewart Living Omnimedia donated $153K, 99% went to Democrats

Estee Lauder donated $448K, 95% went to Democrats

Guess, Inc. donated $145K, 98% went to Democrats

Calvin Klein donated $78K, 100% went to Democrats

Liz Claiborne, Inc. donated $34K, 97% went to Democrats

Levi Straus donated $26K, 97% went to Democrats

Olan Mills donated $175K, 99% went to Democrats

WalMart donated $467K, 97% went to Republicans

K-Mart donated $524K, 86% went to Republicans

Home Depot donated $298K, 89% went to Republicans

Target donated $226K, 70% went to Republicans

Circuit City Stores donated $261K, 95% went to Republicans

3M Co. donated $281K, 87% went to Republicans

Hallmark Cards donated $319K, 92% went to Republicans

Amway donated $391K, 100% Republicans

Kohler Co. (plumbing fixtures) donated $283K, 100% Republicans

B.F. Goodrich (tires) donated $215K, 97% went to Republicans

Proctor & Gamble donated $243K, 79% went to Republicans


Spirits

Southern Wine & Spirits donated $213K, 73% went to Democrats

Joseph E. Seagrams & Sons (incl. beverage Business and considerable media interests) donated $2M+, 67% went to Democrats

Gallo Winery donated $337K, 95% went to Democrats

Coors & Budweiser donated $174K, 92% went to Republicans

Brown-Forman Corp. (Southern Comfort, Jack Daniels, Bushmills, Korbel Wines, Lenox China , Dansk and Gorham Silver)donated $644 K -- 80% went to Republicans


Hungry?

Sonic Corporation donated $83K, 98% went to Democrats

Triarc Companies (Arby's, T.J. Cinnamon's, Pasta Connections) donated $112K, 96% went to Democrats

Pilgrim's Pride Corp. (chicken) donated $366K, 100% went to Republicans

Outback Steakhouse donated $641K, 95% went to Republicans

Tricon Global Restaurants (KFC, Pizza Hut, Taco Bell) donated $133K, 87% went to Republicans

Brinker International (Maggiano's, Brinker Cafe, Chili's, On the Border, Macaroni Grill, Crazymel's, Corner Baker, EatZis) donated $242K, 83% went to Republicans

Waffle House donated $279K, 100% went to Republicans

McDonald's Corp. donated $197K, 86% went to Republicans

Darden Restaurants (Red Lobster, Olive Garden, Smokey Bones, Bahama Breeze) donated $121K, 89% went to Republicans

Heinz Republicans $64,000 Democrats $21,300!!!!! John Kerry's wife's company!!!


Traveling and/or dining

Hyatt Corporation donated $187K of which 80% went to Democrats

Marriott International $323K, 81% went to Republicans

Holiday Inns donated $38K, 71% went to Republicans



 
 Waving USA FLag
DeWitt Edwards

"If ye love wealth better than liberty, the tranquility of servitude better than the animating contest of freedom, go home from us in peace. We ask not your counsels or arms. Crouch down and lick the hands which feed you. May your chains set lightly upon you, and may posterity forget that ye were our countrymen." 
 Samuel Adams
 
 






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Meetup Message Board Update

*Please do not reply to this message*
------------------------------------------------------------
You asked that we send you a summary of Meetup message board activity. The following is a list of discussions with new messages posted since August 29, 2012 3:21 AM.
------------------------------------------------------------

============================================================
PENINSULA PATRIOTS
Forum: Peninsula Patriots Discussion Forum
============================================================

State Department Memorandum 200 – Population Control and Food as a Weapon
http://www.meetup.com/Peninsula-Patriots/boards/view/viewthread?thread=26404152
Latest message by David Callis on August 30, 2012 at 12:13 AM

US Military and US Veterans rounded up by DHS and forcibly being admitted to Mental Hospitals
http://www.meetup.com/Peninsula-Patriots/boards/view/viewthread?thread=26403592
Latest message by David Callis on August 30, 2012 at 12:39 AM



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Wednesday, August 29, 2012

[Peninsula-Patriots] An open letter

I enjoyed the speeches at the convention tonight. Ann Romney seemed very sincere. I know we must support Romney but I confess I do so with reservations.


This is an open letter a Virginian wrote to Governor McDonnell and Governor Romney today.

My open letter to Govs. McDonnell and Romney:

Dear Gov. McDonnell,

I have served RPV and its candidates as a volunteer for 22 of my 38 years. I have been chairman of my local unit, my legislative district, and a Republican member of my Board of Supervisors in Campbell County. I have been stabbed in the back plenty of
 times by party leadership for taking principled stands. But the rape of the vo
ting rights of Virginia's RNC delegation today, especially in light of the early support you and Mr. Bolling gave Romney, DEMANDS a response. Will you demand an apology from Romney and the RNC, on behalf of your own state's delegation? Please see the letter below that I sent to Gov Romney tonight, and I would appreciate your reply.

Gov. Romney,

I have swallowed numerous significant policy disagreements to support you (gay marriage in Massachusetts, Romneycare, conflicting positions on abortion, just to name a few), because the alternative is so bad.

But I have heard today from friends in the Virginia delegation who were ridden around Tampa in a bus for an hour and a half to keep them from voting against the naked power grab you and the RNC rigged with the change to Rule 15, taking delegate selections out of the hands of the grassroots in the future and leaving them to be handpicked by powerful establishment GOP politicians instead.

SHAME ON YOU, sir! You have left those of us who stand on principle, who actually do "believe in America," including fundamental principles like "government by the consent of the governed, and power coming from the people up to our elected representatives instead of the reverse. You have declared open warfare on the hardest-working activists our party has, even as you need them the most. Rush Limbaugh and Michelle Malkin pegged this one exactly right, sir. You have left us with an impossible choice. This is even worse than the lesser of two evils: It is the choice of which practitioner of slimy, thuggish Chicago politics we will choose.

I believe I speak for all the liberty-loving Virginians you held hostage on a bus today outside the convention, keeping them from exercising their right to vote in true "New Black Panthers" style. SHAME ON YOU, SIR! Shame, shame, shame!

 
 Waving USA FLag
DeWitt Edwards 
"If ye love wealth better than liberty, the tranquility of servitude better than the animating contest of freedom, go home from us in peace. We ask not your counsels or arms. Crouch down and lick the hands which feed you. May your chains set lightly upon you, and may posterity forget that ye were our countrymen." 
 Samuel Adams 




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Tuesday, August 28, 2012

Re: [Peninsula-Patriots] Fwd: Tonight - Invitation to Congressman Wittman Public Policy Forum August 28, 2012

Please share your notes Ruth. I will be going to see him tomorrow in York County.
 
 Waving USA FLag
DeWitt Edwards 
"If ye love wealth better than liberty, the tranquility of servitude better than the animating contest of freedom, go home from us in peace. We ask not your counsels or arms. Crouch down and lick the hands which feed you. May your chains set lightly upon you, and may posterity forget that ye were our countrymen." 
 Samuel Adams 


From: Ruth Litschewski & Carl Nitzsche <ruth1860@aol.com>
To: Peninsula-Patriots-list@meetup.com
Sent: Tuesday, August 28, 2012 12:14 PM
Subject: [Peninsula-Patriots] Fwd: Tonight - Invitation to Congressman Wittman Public Policy Forum August 28, 2012

If you are interested in land use and property rights - please consider attending this meeting tonight.  I will be attending.
Ruth

Forwarded from Middlesex TP group:


Tonight, at the Lancaster VFD, Congressman Wittman will be addressing several crucial topics that are important to all of us. The meeting is hosted by the First District Republican Committee and everyone is invited to attend.   



Congressman Rob Wittman of Virginia's 1st  Congressional District will conduct a forum at 7 p.m., August 28 at the Upper  Lancaster Volunteer Fire Department building at 5170 Mary Ball Road in  Lively. The topic of the forum will be, "The Environmental Protection  Agency (EPA), Land Use, and Property Rights in the Northern Neck."  

Recent regulatory rulings by the EPA promise to have a significant  impact on land use and property rights, particularly in rural  areas.

Congressman Wittman is a member of the House Committee on  Natural Resources and has extensive expertise in water quality, fisheries, and  other natural resource issues. Wittman worked for 20 years with the Virginia  Department of Health.  He served as an environmental health specialist  and later was field director for the Division of Shellfish Sanitation. He  holds a Ph.D. in Public Policy and Administration from Virginia Commonwealth  University, a Master of Public Health degree in Health Policy and  Administration from the University of North Carolina, and a Bachelor of  Science degree in Biology from Virginia Tech.

Thanks,
Edgar  Doleman
Secretary, 1st Cong. Dist. Republican Comm.

------ End of Forwarded Message





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Re: [Peninsula-Patriots] think before you buy!

As long as we are on insurance, don't forget that Progressive Insurance (you know, the the TV ads featuring the ditz, dressed all in white) lives up to its name with large contribution to liberal candidates and causes.

Ted

On Tue, Aug 28, 2012 at 11:47 AM, Larry Heatwole <lches335@verizon.net> wrote:

Also, Farmers Insurance donates to the Republican Party.  Plus,.their rates are cheaper than just about everybody.  I've had great service with them.  I will never change.
LCH
----- Original Message -----
Sent: Monday, August 27, 2012 9:41 PM
Subject: Re: [Peninsula-Patriots] think before you buy!


I would love to pass this on but need to see where this information originated. Need to check it out. Can't seem to find anything on "Center for Responsive Politics," "Shopping."

Nancy



On Aug 27, 2012, at 11:26 AM, DeWitt Edwards wrote:

From Dorothy comes this:


SHOP POLITICALLY

AMERICANS CAN NOW DETERMINE WHERE TO SHOP AND SPEND THEIR MONEY

Election Cycle political donations, as reported by the Center for Responsive Politics.
Shopping

Price Club/Costco donated $225K, 99% went to Democrats

Rite Aid donated $517K, 60% went to Democrats

Magla Products ( Stanley tools, Mr. Clean) donated $22K, 100% went to Democrats

Warnaco (undergarments) donated $55K, 73% went to Democrats

Martha Stewart Living Omnimedia donated $153K, 99% went to Democrats

Estee Lauder donated $448K, 95% went to Democrats

Guess, Inc. donated $145K, 98% went to Democrats

Calvin Klein donated $78K, 100% went to Democrats

Liz Claiborne, Inc. donated $34K, 97% went to Democrats

Levi Straus donated $26K, 97% went to Democrats

Olan Mills donated $175K, 99% went to Democrats

WalMart donated $467K, 97% went to Republicans

K-Mart donated $524K, 86% went to Republicans

Home Depot donated $298K, 89% went to Republicans

Target donated $226K, 70% went to Republicans

Circuit City Stores donated $261K, 95% went to Republicans

3M Co. donated $281K, 87% went to Republicans

Hallmark Cards donated $319K, 92% went to Republicans

Amway donated $391K, 100% Republicans

Kohler Co. (plumbing fixtures) donated $283K, 100% Republicans

B.F. Goodrich (tires) donated $215K, 97% went to Republicans

Proctor & Gamble donated $243K, 79% went to Republicans


Spirits

Southern Wine & Spirits donated $213K, 73% went to Democrats

Joseph E. Seagrams & Sons (incl. beverage Business and considerable media interests) donated $2M+, 67% went to Democrats

Gallo Winery donated $337K, 95% went to Democrats

Coors & Budweiser donated $174K, 92% went to Republicans

Brown-Forman Corp. (Southern Comfort, Jack Daniels, Bushmills, Korbel Wines, Lenox China , Dansk and Gorham Silver)donated $644 K -- 80% went to Republicans


Hungry?

Sonic Corporation donated $83K, 98% went to Democrats

Triarc Companies (Arby's, T.J. Cinnamon's, Pasta Connections) donated $112K, 96% went to Democrats

Pilgrim's Pride Corp. (chicken) donated $366K, 100% went to Republicans

Outback Steakhouse donated $641K, 95% went to Republicans

Tricon Global Restaurants (KFC, Pizza Hut, Taco Bell) donated $133K, 87% went to Republicans

Brinker International (Maggiano's, Brinker Cafe, Chili's, On the Border, Macaroni Grill, Crazymel's, Corner Baker, EatZis) donated $242K, 83% went to Republicans

Waffle House donated $279K, 100% went to Republicans

McDonald's Corp. donated $197K, 86% went to Republicans

Darden Restaurants (Red Lobster, Olive Garden, Smokey Bones, Bahama Breeze) donated $121K, 89% went to Republicans

Heinz Republicans $64,000 Democrats $21,300!!!!! John Kerry's wife's company!!!


Traveling and/or dining

Hyatt Corporation donated $187K of which 80% went to Democrats

Marriott International $323K, 81% went to Republicans

Holiday Inns donated $38K, 71% went to Republicans



 
 Waving USA FLag
DeWitt Edwards

"If ye love wealth better than liberty, the tranquility of servitude better than the animating contest of freedom, go home from us in peace. We ask not your counsels or arms. Crouch down and lick the hands which feed you. May your chains set lightly upon you, and may posterity forget that ye were our countrymen." 
 Samuel Adams
 
 






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[Peninsula-Patriots] Fwd: Tonight - Invitation to Congressman Wittman Public Policy Forum August 28, 2012

If you are interested in land use and property rights - please consider attending this meeting tonight.  I will be attending.
Ruth

Forwarded from Middlesex TP group:


Tonight, at the Lancaster VFD, Congressman Wittman will be addressing several crucial topics that are important to all of us. The meeting is hosted by the First District Republican Committee and everyone is invited to attend.   



Congressman Rob Wittman of Virginia's 1st  Congressional District will conduct a forum at 7 p.m., August 28 at the Upper  Lancaster Volunteer Fire Department building at 5170 Mary Ball Road in  Lively. The topic of the forum will be, "The Environmental Protection  Agency (EPA), Land Use, and Property Rights in the Northern Neck."  

Recent regulatory rulings by the EPA promise to have a significant  impact on land use and property rights, particularly in rural  areas.

Congressman Wittman is a member of the House Committee on  Natural Resources and has extensive expertise in water quality, fisheries, and  other natural resource issues. Wittman worked for 20 years with the Virginia  Department of Health.  He served as an environmental health specialist  and later was field director for the Division of Shellfish Sanitation. He  holds a Ph.D. in Public Policy and Administration from Virginia Commonwealth  University, a Master of Public Health degree in Health Policy and  Administration from the University of North Carolina, and a Bachelor of  Science degree in Biology from Virginia Tech.

Thanks,
Edgar  Doleman
Secretary, 1st Cong. Dist. Republican Comm.

------ End of Forwarded Message





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[Peninsula-Patriots] Fwd: Opponents defeat feared ‘power grab’


From Dave Davis, Mathews Republican Chairman
Regarding the power grab at the National Convention in Tampa


To all:
 
The power grab you were told about last night has been defeated!!  Read about it at the link below.
 
Dave
 






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Re: [Peninsula-Patriots] think before you buy!


Also, Farmers Insurance donates to the Republican Party.  Plus,.their rates are cheaper than just about everybody.  I've had great service with them.  I will never change.
LCH
----- Original Message -----
Sent: Monday, August 27, 2012 9:41 PM
Subject: Re: [Peninsula-Patriots] think before you buy!


I would love to pass this on but need to see where this information originated. Need to check it out. Can't seem to find anything on "Center for Responsive Politics," "Shopping."

Nancy



On Aug 27, 2012, at 11:26 AM, DeWitt Edwards wrote:

From Dorothy comes this:


SHOP POLITICALLY

AMERICANS CAN NOW DETERMINE WHERE TO SHOP AND SPEND THEIR MONEY

Election Cycle political donations, as reported by the Center for Responsive Politics.
Shopping

Price Club/Costco donated $225K, 99% went to Democrats

Rite Aid donated $517K, 60% went to Democrats

Magla Products ( Stanley tools, Mr. Clean) donated $22K, 100% went to Democrats

Warnaco (undergarments) donated $55K, 73% went to Democrats

Martha Stewart Living Omnimedia donated $153K, 99% went to Democrats

Estee Lauder donated $448K, 95% went to Democrats

Guess, Inc. donated $145K, 98% went to Democrats

Calvin Klein donated $78K, 100% went to Democrats

Liz Claiborne, Inc. donated $34K, 97% went to Democrats

Levi Straus donated $26K, 97% went to Democrats

Olan Mills donated $175K, 99% went to Democrats

WalMart donated $467K, 97% went to Republicans

K-Mart donated $524K, 86% went to Republicans

Home Depot donated $298K, 89% went to Republicans

Target donated $226K, 70% went to Republicans

Circuit City Stores donated $261K, 95% went to Republicans

3M Co. donated $281K, 87% went to Republicans

Hallmark Cards donated $319K, 92% went to Republicans

Amway donated $391K, 100% Republicans

Kohler Co. (plumbing fixtures) donated $283K, 100% Republicans

B.F. Goodrich (tires) donated $215K, 97% went to Republicans

Proctor & Gamble donated $243K, 79% went to Republicans


Spirits

Southern Wine & Spirits donated $213K, 73% went to Democrats

Joseph E. Seagrams & Sons (incl. beverage Business and considerable media interests) donated $2M+, 67% went to Democrats

Gallo Winery donated $337K, 95% went to Democrats

Coors & Budweiser donated $174K, 92% went to Republicans

Brown-Forman Corp. (Southern Comfort, Jack Daniels, Bushmills, Korbel Wines, Lenox China , Dansk and Gorham Silver)donated $644 K -- 80% went to Republicans


Hungry?

Sonic Corporation donated $83K, 98% went to Democrats

Triarc Companies (Arby's, T.J. Cinnamon's, Pasta Connections) donated $112K, 96% went to Democrats

Pilgrim's Pride Corp. (chicken) donated $366K, 100% went to Republicans

Outback Steakhouse donated $641K, 95% went to Republicans

Tricon Global Restaurants (KFC, Pizza Hut, Taco Bell) donated $133K, 87% went to Republicans

Brinker International (Maggiano's, Brinker Cafe, Chili's, On the Border, Macaroni Grill, Crazymel's, Corner Baker, EatZis) donated $242K, 83% went to Republicans

Waffle House donated $279K, 100% went to Republicans

McDonald's Corp. donated $197K, 86% went to Republicans

Darden Restaurants (Red Lobster, Olive Garden, Smokey Bones, Bahama Breeze) donated $121K, 89% went to Republicans

Heinz Republicans $64,000 Democrats $21,300!!!!! John Kerry's wife's company!!!


Traveling and/or dining

Hyatt Corporation donated $187K of which 80% went to Democrats

Marriott International $323K, 81% went to Republicans

Holiday Inns donated $38K, 71% went to Republicans



 
 Waving USA FLag
DeWitt Edwards

"If ye love wealth better than liberty, the tranquility of servitude better than the animating contest of freedom, go home from us in peace. We ask not your counsels or arms. Crouch down and lick the hands which feed you. May your chains set lightly upon you, and may posterity forget that ye were our countrymen." 
 Samuel Adams
 
 






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Re: [Peninsula-Patriots] Election forcast


In the event that Romney wins, I can foresee a terrific problem in the exchange of power (if that happens at all).  These guys do not want to let this go, and they won't.  The Communist Party of the United States has been waiting a long time for this.
LCH
----- Original Message -----
Sent: Monday, August 27, 2012 9:43 PM
Subject: Re: [Peninsula-Patriots] Election forcast

Look for martial law or the election to be stolen electronically....Either way I expect things to go badly come November.
 
 
Think about who you are and what you are about...Whom do you serve?God or Mammon?Freedom or tyranny?-----David W. Callis 2011
 

From: DeWitt Edwards <l_edwards@verizon.net>
To: peninsula-patriots-list@meetup.com
Sent: Saturday, August 25, 2012 12:23 PM
Subject: [Peninsula-Patriots] Election forcast

If you are a Republican you may find the following information encouraging. I heard professor Kenneth Bickers interviewed on Shawn Hannity's radio program yesterday. One must admit, these guys have a remarkable record in their predictions.

Analysis of election factors points to Romney win, University of Colorado study says

 
A University of Colorado analysis of state-by-state factors leading to the Electoral College selection of every U.S. president since 1980 forecasts that the 2012 winner will be Mitt Romney.
The key is the economy, say political science professors Kenneth Bickers of CU-Boulder and Michael Berry of CU Denver. Their prediction model stresses economic data from the 50 states and the District of Columbia, including both state and national unemployment figures as well as changes in real per capita income, among other factors.
"Based on our forecasting model, it becomes clear that the president is in electoral trouble," said Bickers, also director of the CU in DC Internship Program.
According to their analysis, President Barack Obama will win 218 votes in the Electoral College, short of the 270 he needs. And though they chiefly focus on the Electoral College, the political scientists predict Romney will win 52.9 percent of the popular vote to Obama's 47.1 percent, when considering only the two major political parties.
"For the last eight presidential elections, this model has correctly predicted the winner," said Berry. "The economy has seen some improvement since President Obama took office. What remains to be seen is whether voters will consider the economy in relative or absolute terms. If it's the former, the president may receive credit for the economy's trajectory and win a second term. In the latter case, Romney should pick up a number of states Obama won in 2008."
Their model correctly predicted all elections since 1980, including two years when independent candidates ran strongly, 1980 and 1992. It also correctly predicted the outcome in 2000, when Al Gore received the most popular vote but George W. Bush won the election.
The study will be published this month in PS: Political Science & Politics, a peer-reviewed journal of the American Political Science Association. It will be among about a dozen election prediction models, but one of only two to focus on the Electoral College.
While many forecast models are based on the popular vote, the Electoral College model developed by Bickers and Berry is the only one of its type to include more than one state-level measure of economic conditions.
In addition to state and national unemployment rates, the authors looked at per capita income, which indicates the extent to which people have more or less disposable income. Research shows that these two factors affect the major parties differently: Voters hold Democrats more responsible for unemployment rates while Republicans are held more responsible for per capita income.
Accordingly -- and depending largely on which party is in the White House at the time -- each factor can either help or hurt the major parties disproportionately.
Their results show that "the apparent advantage of being a Democratic candidate and holding the White House disappears when the national unemployment rate hits 5.6 percent," Berry said.  The results indicate, according to Bickers, "that the incumbency advantage enjoyed by President Obama, though statistically significant, is not great enough to offset high rates of unemployment currently experienced in many of the states."
In an examination of other factors, the authors found that none of the following had any statistically significant effect on whether a state ultimately went for a particular candidate: The location of a party's national convention; the home state of the vice president; or the partisanship of state governors.
In 2012, "What is striking about our state-level economic indicator forecast is the expectation that Obama will lose almost all of the states currently considered as swing states, including North Carolina, Virginia, New Hampshire, Colorado, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, Ohio and Florida," Bickers said.
In Colorado, which went for Obama in 2008, the model predicts that Romney will receive 51.9 percent of the vote to Obama's 48.1 percent, again with only the two major parties considered.
The authors also provided caveats. Factors they said may affect their prediction include the timeframe of the economic data used in the study and close tallies in certain states. The current data was taken five months in advance of the Nov. 6 election and they plan to update it with more current economic data in September. A second factor is that states very close to a 50-50 split may fall an unexpected direction.
"As scholars and pundits well know, each election has unique elements that could lead one or more states to behave in ways in a particular election that the model is unable to correctly predict," Berry said.
Election prediction models "suggest that presidential elections are about big things and the stewardship of the national economy," Bickers said. "It's not about gaffes, political commercials or day-to-day campaign tactics. I find that heartening for our democracy."
Contact:
Kenneth Bickers, 303-492-2363
bickers@colorado.edu
Michael Berry, 303-556-6244
michael.berry@ucdenver.edu
Peter Caughey, CU-Boulder media relations, 303-492-4007
David Kelly, CU Denver media relations, 303-315-6374
 
 Waving USA FLag
DeWitt Edwards 
"If ye love wealth better than liberty, the tranquility of servitude better than the animating contest of freedom, go home from us in peace. We ask not your counsels or arms. Crouch down and lick the hands which feed you. May your chains set lightly upon you, and may posterity forget that ye were our countrymen." 
 Samuel Adams 




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